Archive for the ‘world’ Category

what peakoil looks like   Leave a comment

Wednesdays the oil production figures from Saudi Arabia are released. The numerate crowd over at The Oil Drum have been gnawing at these for a few years. Their articles and their posts on Drum Beat are beginning now to be referenced in MSM (that’s main-stream media to us hicks). In just the last couple of weeks these ‘looney doomers’ have been cited in the Wall St. Journal, the Economist, and some UK papers.

Jeffrey Brown -‘westexas’ – is a leading light, in part for his work on modelling. This is his (with others) attempt to make sense of the figures that wash over ‘general journalists’. Skip the graphs if you must – read on to the end. He’s a geologist in the oil trade – but his conclusions are far from dusty, or sticky.

First: this is what PeakOil looks like.

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Now the UK went, in a few short years, from being a huge exporter of oil, to a net importer. The UK was once an ‘Export-Land’, and here is his model for the others:-

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As living standards in Export Lands (the Middle East) increase, so does their thirst. They want more oil themselves, which only decreases the amount released to the rest of us thirsty beasts. We worry about ‘Chin/dia’ sucking the wells dry – he’s simply alerting us to a further drain-factor.

This is his take on the US :-

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This graph shows Total US Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Imports, which have increased at about 5% per year since 1990.

 

In my opinion, we will see an epic collision between the conventional wisdom expectations of a continued exponential rate of increase in net oil exports, versus the rapidly developing new reality of an exponential decline in net oil exports. My frequent coauthor, “Khebab,” is presently working on some mathematical models for production, consumption and net exports by the top net oil exporters. Based on the data that I have seen so far, it will not be a pretty picture. I suspect that the models may show that not much more than 25% of the remaining URR in the top net exporting countries will be exported.

 

In regard to discussions of Peak Oil and Peak Exports, I have described what I call the “Iron Triangle,” which consists of: (1) Some major oil companies, some major oil exporters and some energy analysts; (2) The auto, housing and finance group and (3) The media group.

 

If one resides in the oil industry leg of the Iron Triangle, and if one has concluded that Peak Oil is upon us, or extremely close, does one say, “We cannot increase our production,” and thereby encourage massive conservation and alternative energy efforts, or does one say “We choose not to increase production and/or we are temporarily unable to increase production for the following reasons (fill in the blank)?”

 

The latter course of action would tend to discourage emergency conservation efforts and alternative energy efforts, and it would encourage energy consumers to maintain their current lifestyles, perhaps by going further into debt to pay their energy bills, and it would in general have the net effect of maximizing the value of remaining reserves.

The prevailing message from some major oil companies, some major oil exporters and some energy analysts can be roughly summarized as follows “Party On Dude!”

Meanwhile, over on the other two legs of the Iron Triangle, the auto, housing and finance group is focused on selling and financing the next auto and house, and the media group just wants to sell advertising to the auto, housing and finance group. The media group is only too happy to pass on the “Party On Dude” message to consumers.

I recommend FEOT–Farming + Electrification Of Transportation (EOT), combined with a crash wind + nuclear power program.

 

Alan Drake has written extensively on EOT issues, for example in “Electrification of transportation as a response to peaking of world oil production.”

In simplest terms, we are soon going to need jobs for hordes of angry unemployed males, and in my opinion “FEOT” is a way to put them into productive jobs.

On an individual basis, I would also recommend “ELP,” which is summarized in the following article: “The ELP Plan: Economize; Localize and Produce.”

Now, some of the above may be news to some – and if it wasn’t for my Mary, who has been following it all for over a year – I would be largely ignorant. I read a great deal, online and off, and I watch and listen to a number of news feeds. They none of them have seen fit to refer to any of this – up ’til now.

There will be more, in the near future. Here and in your news.